Meme coins are an attention market with a liquidity problem

The three variables that matter

• Concentration: how much of the float sits in the top 100 wallets. High concentration means the exit is narrower than the entry.
• Depth: how much capital it takes to move price 5%. Thin books make both directions violent.
• Narrative half-life: how long the current story has been running. Meme narratives decay; the price follows with a lag.

Everything else — the roadmap, the mascot, the community — is marketing. Marketing can extend a narrative, but it cannot create bid depth when holders decide to leave at the same time.

A meme coin is a liquidity event wearing a community label. Treat position size as the entire risk control.

Where the sector is in this cycle

Sector breadth is narrow and the leaders are concentrated in the two largest ecosystems. That pattern typically appears in the later innings of a risk-appetite expansion: capital crowds into the most recognisable names rather than dispersing. It does not mean an immediate reversal. It means the payoff distribution is asymmetric against new entries.

Our scoring for this sector caps conviction deliberately. A high trend score here means the tape is working, not that the asset is sound. The distinction must survive contact with a screen that shows a 300% 30-day return.

Rules we apply to ourselves

• Total meme exposure never exceeds a fixed, written percentage of the portfolio — typically under 2%.
• No averaging down. The thesis is momentum only, so a broken trend ends the position.
• Take partial profits mechanically at predetermined levels; narratives do not announce their top.