Crypto Without the Hype
A framework for allocating to digital assets when there are no cash flows to discount. Macro liquidity, on-chain flow and volatility sizing replace the story-telling that dominates crypto commentary.
3 lessons37 minutesIntermediate levelInstructor: Mara Lindqvist
Curriculum
01Liquidity is the only macro variable that matters12 min
Real yields and the dollar drive the marginal dollar's position on the risk curve. Crypto sits at the far end of it.
Key takeaways
- Falling real yields historically coincide with crypto expansion.
- Dollar strength is the most reliable headwind for the sector.
- Position for the regime, not for the halving calendar.
02Flows, float and market structure15 min
Who is buying, how much of the supply is actually available, and where the leverage sits. This is the entire fundamental case for most digital assets.
Key takeaways
- Spot vehicle flows are price-insensitive buyers at the margin.
- Float, not total supply, determines how fast price moves.
- Funding rates tell you who is crowded before the liquidation does.
03Sizing a 3x-volatility asset10 min
The maths of allocating to something that routinely draws down 40% without ending your portfolio.
Key takeaways
- Size to a risk contribution, not a dollar amount.
- Assume a 40% drawdown is normal and survive it without selling.
- Rebalance mechanically — conviction fails at extremes.
What you will be able to do
- ✓Map crypto exposure to liquidity conditions rather than narratives
- ✓Read on-chain flow and float dynamics
- ✓Size positions using realised volatility
- ✓Separate protocol value from token value