Transparency
Methodology, terms and risk disclosure
If you cannot audit the model, you cannot rely on it. This page publishes the score construction, the stance bands and the limits of what we do.
1. How the trend score is built
Each input is normalised to a 0–100 scale and combined with fixed weights. Weights changed only once since inception; every change is logged for Institutional subscribers. Momentum carries the largest weight because it leads price, while the 200-day relationship is treated as a regime filter rather than a signal.
| Input | Weight | What it reads |
|---|---|---|
| Price vs 20-day average | 22% | Short-term positioning |
| 20-day vs 50-day average | 20% | Medium-term direction |
| 50-day vs 200-day average | 18% | Structural regime |
| 30-session rate of change | 25% | Momentum persistence |
| RSI positioning (14-day) | 15% | Stretch within the trend |
2. What the stance bands mean
Trend is established across all horizons. Size normally, manage against the invalidation level.
Trend is improving but not confirmed. Scale in on strength, keep the position below target.
No directional edge. Existing positions may be held; new entries have no statistical support.
Trend is deteriorating. Reduce exposure and require a reclaim before re-engaging.
Downtrend across horizons. Counter-trend rallies are exits, not entries.
3. Conviction, risk and sizing
Conviction scales with the distance of the score from neutral and with position in the 52-week range; it never implies certainty. Risk grade is derived from 60-day realised volatility and drives position sizing guidance. A high-volatility asset receives a proportionally smaller notional for the same risk contribution — that is the entire point of grading it.
4. Data in this build
This deployment runs on a deterministic sample dataset generated from a fixed seed per asset. It is internally consistent and stable, which makes the product demonstrable end to end, but it is not live market data and must not be used for trading decisions. Production requires a licensed market-data feed and a reviewed pricing and distribution agreement.
5. Risk disclosure
NextWall Street publishes market analysis and educational material only. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, a personal recommendation, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security, token, derivative or other financial instrument. We do not manage client money, we do not execute orders, and we hold no positions in the assets we cover.
Investing and trading involve a substantial risk of loss, up to and including the total loss of capital. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Speculative assets, including meme coins and small-cap tokens, can lose their entire value and may be subject to liquidity constraints, custody risk or fraud. Past performance does not predict future results, and no model — including ours — has a guaranteed edge.
Scores are mechanical outputs from historical price data. They do not account for your circumstances, tax position, objectives, time horizon or risk tolerance. Where a decision matters, consult a licensed financial adviser in your jurisdiction. You are responsible for your own due diligence and for every order you place.
Information is provided in good faith from what we believe to be reliable sources, but no warranty is given as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and content may become outdated without notice. Where affiliate or sponsorship relationships exist in future, they will be disclosed on the piece itself.